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How To Calculate The Running Time Of A Horse
You can have an incredible edge over other horse racing handicappers by learning how to calculate the actual running time of a horse. It does take some time, but it's not difficult.
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Have you ever wanted to get an edge over other handicappers? Then it's time you learned how to calculate the actual time a horse ran a race. For this example we will use final times as they appeared in the past performance records of a Daily Racing Form.
Before you learn to make these calculations you need to know a few standards.
1. The average length of a thoroughbred horse is eight feet.
2. One furlong equals six hundred sixty (660) feet.
You also need to know that the formulas below use the following symbols:
F: furlongs
FBL: feet behind leader
FPS: feet-per-second
HD: horse distance
HT: horse time
LBL: lengths behind leader
M: minutes
RD: race distance
RT: race time
S: seconds
We'll use Madame Pietra's August 3, 2002, race at Del Mar for our example.
Madame Pietra finished second, 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner in a six-furlong race that had a final time listed in The Daily Racing Form as 1:09 3/5. Based on the old one length equals 1/5
of a second rule still used by most folks, Madame Pietra would be assigned at time of 1:10 1/5 seconds.
However, based on information readily available to us, we can deduce that Madame Pietra's time was closer to 1:09.95. That's over 1/5 of a second faster than the old standard would have you believe. So how did I come up with that time?
To arrive at a final time of 1:09.95 for Madame Pietra some simple mathematical calculations were required. I made them using the following formula:
HT=((Fx660)/((Fx660)-(LBLx8))/((Mx60)-S))
I know at this point many readers have moved on to the next article. If you're still with me don't panic. Their loss is your gain. I'm going to break that formula down into six smaller formulas so you can fully understand what everything means. Before long you'll be making these calculations with ease.
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Formula #1: RD = F x 660
We begin by multiplying the number of furlongs (F) for the race times the number of feet in a furlong (660) to arrive at the racing distance (RD) in feet. (A chart has been posted at http://www.racecapper.com/misc/dist-to-feet.html so that you can eliminate the need to make this calculation.)
Answer: 6 x 660 = 3960; RD = 3960
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Formula #2: FBL = LBL x 8
You next multiply the number of lengths behind (LBL) times the average length of a thoroughbred horse (8) to arrive at the number of feet behind the leader (FBL).
Answer: 2.5 x 8 = 20; FBL = 20
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Formula #3: HD = RD - FBL
Subtract the number of feet behind (FBL) from the number of feet in the race (FD) to arrive at the number of feet traveled (HD) at the time the lead horse tripped the timer.
Answer: 3960 - 20 = 3940; HD = 3940
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Formula #4: RT = (M x 60) + S
Multiply the number of minutes (M) times the number of seconds in a minute (60). Add that number to the remaining seconds of the time (S). The result is the number of seconds in the race. (Whenever dealing with a time less than 2:00.00, simply remember to drop the one (1) from the time and add 60 to the remaining seconds.)
Answer: (1 x 60) + 0:09.60 = 0:69.60; RT = 69.60
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Formula #5: FPS = HD / RT
Divide the number of feet traveled (HD) by the time of the winner (RT) to arrive at the average number of feet-per-second traveled (FPS) at the time the race ended.
Answer: 3940 / 0:69.60 = 56.61; FPS = 56.61
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Formula #6: HT = RD / FPS
Divide the number of feet in the race (RD) by the average number of feet-per-second at which the horse was traveling (FPS) to arrive at the time the horse likely crossed the finish line (HT).
Answer: 3960 / 56.61 = 0:69.95; HT = 69.95 = 1:09.95
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This all seems complicated at first, but once you make these calculations a few times it will become almost mechanical. It does require some time, but in the long run it's well worth it.
Of course, you can save the time it takes to process these formulas by subscribing to RaceCapper Ratings Reports. The ratings used in our Reports are derived from times calculated using the above formula(s).
Gerald Cohail
RaceCapper.com
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