|
How can it be that nearly thirty years have elapsed since Andrew Beyer first brought us the concept of par times and daily track variants, yet no one seems to have closely examined their use.
The examples that follow were taken from the past performance records of four horses listed in a July 2002 Daily Racing Form. They were chosen from tracks located in different areas of the country to show that my observations about time are not a West Coast phenomenon.
West Coast Example: A Bunch Of Maniacs.
As of July 2002, this horse had won three races in its career – each at a different racetrack. On January 25, 2001, A Bunch Of Maniacs ran wire-to-wire, running the first 6 furlongs of a 6 1/2 furlong race at Santa Anita in 1:09 2/5. On April 27, 2002, the same horse ran wire-to-wire, winning a 6 furlong race at Bay Meadows in 1:09 3/5. On July 10, 2002, A Bunch Of Maniacs once again won a 6 furlong race, this time at the Solano County Fairgrounds, in a time of 1:09. These three races – each contested at a different California race track – were won in times that are within three-fifths of a second of each other.
Southeast Example: Tour Of The Cat.
On November 1, 2001, Tour Of The Cat went wire-to-wire at Calder Race Course at a distance of 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The six-furlong time was 1:09 4/5. On January 22, 2002, the same horse lost a seven-furlong race at Tampa Bay Downs by a head. This gelding set the six-furlong time of the race in 1:09 3/5. On June 18, 2002, Tour Of The Cat was back at Calder Race Course, tripping the six-furlong timer in 1:10. Note: These times are all within three-fifths of a second of each other.
Northeast Example: Seminole Gal.
This horse raced at Belmont Park on October 14, 2001, winning a six-furlong race by three lengths in 1:11 4/5. Then on November 25, 2001, Seminole Gal won a seven-furlong race at Aqueduct. The six-furlong time of the race was 1:11 4/5. Seminole Gal was just a head behind the leader when the six-furlong timer was tripped.
Midwest Example: Savannah Hanna.
On October 11, 2001, this four-year-old mare won a six-furlong race at Arlington Park in 1:10 3/5. On April 11, 2002, she once again won a six-furlong race – this time at Oaklawn Park – in 1:10 4/5. On July 12, 2002, Savannah Hanna was back at Arlington Park, this time winning a six-furlong race in 1:11. Note: The winning times for all three races are within three-fifths of a second of each other.
The above examples are all from the charts of one racing day. They took me less than ten minutes to find and document. You can find numerous examples for yourself if you take the time to look. The important thing to remember is this: when a horse is fit and ready to run, that horse will nearly always clock in within three-fifths of a second of its best time.
Are there exceptions? Certainly! The above mentioned Savannah Hanna won a six-furlong sprint at Arlington Park on June 13, 2002, in a slow 1:12. How does one explain this? Perhaps, as the par time proponents would have you believe, the track actually was slow that day. It's just as possible that Savannah Hanna was unable or unwilling to run any faster than the 1:12 needed to win. You'll ultimately believe whatever you choose to believe, but for my money, working with par times and daily variants is a waste of valuable handicapping time.
Gerald Cohail
RaceCapper.com
|
|
